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An Empirical Analysis about Population, Technological. Progress, and Economic Growth in Taiwan. Wan-Jun Yao. Nankai University. Yu-Ching.
Table of contents
- Current state of the Japanese economy
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- THE JAPANESE ECONOMY AMID AGING AND DECLINING POPULATION AND FISCAL DEFICITS
- An Empirical Analysis of Population and Technological Progress - Hisakazu Kato - Google книги
The labor force working population peaked in and has trended downward. The unemployment rate also rose sharply in the latter half of the s while there was no increase in the number of workers; therefore this result is inevitable. Considering population aging and the declining birthrate and population, this trend will likely remain largely unchanged in the future.
Current state of the Japanese economy
In the meantime, most notable is the result of estimates on technological progress total factor productivity. The contribution of technological progress decreased greatly to 0. This supports the view that sluggish technological progress in the latter half of the s was part of the reason for slower economic growth Hayashi and Prescott, On the other hand, results of the estimates also show that the rate of technological progress recovered in the early s and accounts for almost all economic growth rates.
The contribution of capital stock started to show negative figures in the early s. As described later, if the domestic saving rate declines further as population aging and the declining birthrate progress, it may also have an effect on the accumulation of capital stock.
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This trend is likely to continue in the future. It goes without saying that fiscal deficits and the policy response to them will also greatly affect the current state and future trends of the Japanese economy. The primary balance has continually remained in the negative range since fiscal Behind this have been large tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in response to shortages of demand after the lost decade.
Issuance of public bonds to cope with the situation has added up to huge amounts. The balance of ordinary government bonds expanded to This is much higher than the ratios of problematic countries that are suffering from sovereign debt crunches, such as Greece Though there is a view that a high public debt level as a percentage of GDP does not necessarily lead to default risk of a government in a direct and forward manner Reinhart and Rogoff, , loss of confidence in the government adversely affects economic conditions.
This means that national public finances aggravated by accumulated public debt face the added risk of downgrading of government bonds. This would bring medium- to long-term impacts such as higher interest rates and declining stock prices, and hinder the Japanese economy. Factors behind fiscal deficits that impair the Japanese economy include not only the above concerns about risks of rising interest rates, but also the direct harmful effects on the economy from the way the government operates public sector finances. The Japanese government therefore employs a policy of managing public finances from a medium- to long-term perspective with the aim to recover and improve the primary balance.
One reason behind this is that securing revenues through tax hikes and other means is imperative in order to finance foreseeable expansion in social security expenses associated with population aging. The other reason is that it is vital to achieve economic growth through new growth strategies. Though expenditures are expected to increase temporarily in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake in March , the government intends to maintain the targets laid out in the Fiscal Management Strategy.
Achieving these goals is not an easy task. To achieve the targets in the above Fiscal Management Strategy, additional revenues, etc. The fundamental determinant of fiscal deficits is increased social security expenses related to population aging. Yet this increased to In response to this, social security expenses accounted for Considering that public works spending, etc. These are expected to further increase, as evidenced in the materials presented in June during the review process for integrated tax and social security reform. The data indicate that the cost of social security is expected to grow to Assuming that social security will expand, a recovery of the primary balance in fiscal will likely be challenging unless measures to secure considerable amounts of revenue are devised.
The first reason for the expansion of social security is the advancement of population aging, and it is difficult to significantly curb this expansion. So then what kind of relationship is suggested between the expansion of social security and economic growth? The author in a book examined the relationship between the two using panel data on OECD countries. An empirical result shows that the economic growth rate declines as the cost of social security increases.
Based on this and by parity of reasoning, does a favorable turnaround in fiscal balance promote economic growth? Figure 2 shows the result of estimating the relationships between fiscal balancing and economic growth of G7 countries based on fixed-effect models that use panel data for the period of The results of the estimates show that a surplus achieved in fiscal balance promotes economic growth.
Implied reasons for this relationships include: 1 freedom in economic activities being made possible for the economy as a whole when there is less burden from expanding fiscal deficits, 2 the smaller the risk of higher interest rates, the more positive the impact on capital spending, etc. Finally, it would be good to look at a consumption tax hike and its impacts on national economic activity.
With the current condition of fiscal deficits, securing revenues will become necessary in the long run, and a consumption tax hike in stages will be inevitable. It should also be noted that delays in raising tax rates to avoid their negative impact on the national economic activity would push the country more deeply into debt and result in higher sovereign risk.
Use of the consumption tax to finance the expanding cost of social security in the future is unavoidable. We should not fear temporary shocks caused by a hike in the consumption tax, but rather we should expedite establishing this as a fundamental fiscal resource for population aging and the declining birthrate.
Over the long term, continuing impacts on the Japanese economy from population aging and the declining birthrate and associated decrease in population may be larger than those from fiscal constraints. Solving the related fiscal deficits and challenges is not an easy task, but if it is grasped as a medium- to long-term mission, there may be measures that can be adopted. For this reason, to grasp the behavior of the Japanese economy, assumptions should include the population and birthrate issues.
A supply-based approach is suitable for grasping the situation of the Japanese economy from a long-term perspective.
This approach generally assumes an aggregate product function, and the level of potential production capacity in the economy is considered. First we look at the labor force trend by briefly summarizing prospective population movements in the future as assumptions. According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, this will fall to below the million level in , to Looking at the age structure of the population in , the ratio of people 65 and older will have reached as high as Moreover, the core working age population aged will have declined to The labor force peaked in , at As a forecast, the Employment Policy Study Meeting under the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare published estimates in its report made public in According to its estimates, if more women and older people participate in the labor force, it will be On the other hand, if these groups stay at their current levels, this will decrease to In this latter case, approximately 10 million workers are assumed to disappear over the next twenty years.
In terms of supply, this would significantly affect the Japanese economy. Looking further into the future, if the rate obtained by using the population of ages as the denominator and the labor force as the numerator is constant, the labor force in when the population is assumed to be as low as It is of course possible to offset part of a decline in the aggregate labor force with improvements in individual productivity.
As one would expect, political measures are needed to compensate for the declining labor force. Next, we can consider the relationship between trends in capital stock and population aging. Capital stock is the accumulation of new financing and investments made every year, minus depreciation. Accordingly, the lower the depreciation, the more capital stock increases, thus, there is higher production capacity.
The major source of financing and investments is savings, and savings if foreign direct investments are excluded the major source of domestic financing and investments is domestic. Consequently, the future direction of domestic savings, in addition to the advance of population aging, is the key to future movements of capital stock.
The national savings rate declines as population aging advances.
Many studies have examined the evolution of the agrarian economy in England during the Middle Ages. There are two general theories about the 13th and 14th centuries. Postan developed the dominant theory firmly grounded in Ricardian economics. This account is one of continued population growth, increased pressure on agricultural resources, soil exhaustion, declining yields, increased immiserization and the encroachment of arable on pastures in the relentless quest for more grain Campbell, This set of circumstances is claimed to be unprecedented in English history.
It is just this sense of a consummation in man's ancient conflict with nature that the sources of this period fail to impart Harvey , p.
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However, other interpretations have also been presented. Hallam concluded a study of this period with the question:. Could it be that advanced technology, free institutions, a large population in a small space and a progressive economy somehow go together? Can we perhaps stand Rev. Dr Malthus on his head and say that technological advance needs population pressure? Hallam, , p.
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Hallam argues that the steady population rise of the 12th and 13th centuries may not have been the main cause of the crisis of the 14th century. First, unprecedented harvest failures and animal diseases between and had significant adverse effects on peasant welfare. Secondly, there is some contradicting evidence that demographic growth may have continued during the first half of the 14th century Campbell, , , Fourthly, the Malthusian scenario fails to explain why population did not rebound in England after e.
To quote Poos:. Finally, as pointed out by Boserup and others, there is historical evidence that population increase can stimulate technological and institutional innovations that can effectively mitigate the scarcity of resources. And how effective were Boserupian institutional and technological innovations in stimulating productivity growth and dealing with resource scarcity during this period?
These studies remind us just how little agreement there is about this important period. The objective of this paper is to renew economic interest in this historical debate, and analyse this profound period in English agrarian history. As we see in the brief synopsis above, there are profoundly conflicting accounts of these historical events.
THE JAPANESE ECONOMY AMID AGING AND DECLINING POPULATION AND FISCAL DEFICITS
The insights gained can help throw light on the processes whereby modern agricultural relations evolved from ancient feudal structures. The analysis offers a way forward for economists and historians to reach a plausible consensus on the reality of what may be one of the most important transition periods in European economic history. The model is used specifically to provide insights into the role of resource scarcity, with a special focus on the Malthusian and Boserupian propositions. The model is relatively simple, and hence remains empirically tractable.
An Empirical Analysis of Population and Technological Progress - Hisakazu Kato - Google книги
Consider the evolution of human population in a given location. Let pop t denote population size at time t. We expect population dynamics to depend on the resources available to the human population. Let s t denote an index of resource scarcity at time t , where s increases when resources become scarcer. We consider the general case where population growth is determined as follows: 1a.
The lags indicate that population adjustments are not instantaneous. Again, to the extent that f pop, s becomes negative when resources become scarce i. Two key questions are: 1 what are the determinants of resource scarcity as represented by s ; and 2 how does resource scarcity interact with population? At time t , we hypothesize that the resource scarcity index s t in equation 1a depends on population pop t as well as food prices as represented by a food price index pr t : 1b.
Secondly, equation 1b allows population pop t to affect resource scarcity s t. Boserup and others have stressed how a higher population can stimulate technological change that contributes to a reduction in resource scarcity. First, higher population means more potential inventors. If the probability of each person to invent a new technology is independent of population, then the growth rate of technology is expected to be proportional to population.